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- From wierzba@attbi.com Tue Feb 25 18:09:47 2003
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Date: Wed, 26 Feb 2003 02:09:44 -0000
To: colonial-coins@yahoogroups.com
Subject: Re: Challenges for NJ variety collectors
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From: "albioncox <wierzba@attbi.com>" <wierzba@attbi.com>
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There are some tough R5+ varieties. The key is distribution, ie,
tightly held in museums, active/inactive collections make some R5+
tougher to find than a R6- (with both rarities being correct). My
point is that the level of contention shifts from R6- to R5+ to R5-
as the number of advanced collectors (50+) grow.
-- In colonial-coins@yahoogroups.com, "mantoloking2002
<rogersiboni@a...>" <rogersiboni@a...> wrote:
> Dennis,
>
> I kind of agree with Ray. I think R-5+ and up is where things start
> getting crowded. I also beleive that over the years, 80 varieties
is
> about where people start hitting a wall. Per your chart, this
> coincides with about R-5+. The whole thing hangs together but I
think
> it makes 80 and not 50 the crossover point into advanced
collections.
> 80+ is where the heavy lifting really starts. JMHO.
>
> Roger
>
> --- In colonial-coins@yahoogroups.com, "albioncox <wierzba@a...>"
> <wierzba@a...> wrote:
> > After evaluating egroups feedback and some info from Ray W., I
> would
> > now estimate the number of advanced NJ collections (50+
varieties,
> > active, inactive, museums, etc.) at 45. Notice no mention
> of "serious"
> >
> > In my C4 newsletter article (Summer 2000 p41-45), I published
> revised
> > rarity estimates along with "slicing and dicing" the data. The
> > translation from neat tables in 8.5x11 format into the smaller
> > journal makes it a bit hard to read. Taking from this article,
> >
> > Rarity Cum Varieties
> > R1-R4 46
> > R5- 60
> > R5+ 78
> > R6- 90
> > R6+ to R9 141
> >
> > Even if no major variety collection is being sold, I believe
> someone
> > starting today could reach 50+ varieties. How about 31 new
> advanced
> > collectors. Now with 76 advanced collectors, any R5- or better
> > available is in demand by those who want to reach 50 or more.
Right
> > now the strong NJ demand point is among some R6's IMHO.
> >
> > I would estimate that 20% of a variety on average might be choice
> or
> > near choice VF or better (just a guess, no more, no less). Thus
for
> > upgrades, the existing 45 advanced collectors have (or may seek)
> > choice examples of a variety with a survivorship of as much as
225
> > specimens.
> >
> > In summary, advanced collections are R5+. As frustrated variety
> > collectors look for upgrades, even choice R2 and R3s will be hard
> to
> > find. I know, I am there.
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